It also revealed at least 20% of deaths may have been accelerated by weeks or months
The study investigated the relationship between the conditions of patients whose deaths were attributed to the virus, and Covid-19. In the Romanian cohort, it suggested that only 37.2% to 55.7% of deaths from the study appear to actually be caused by Covid-19.
A minimum of 44% of deaths recorded in the study were thought to be due to other factors and were potentially erroneously classified as ’caused by’ Covid-19.
How does this change the numbers?
When extrapolating these figures to the UK, the higher limit of the figures found in the study would result in a reduction from 43,000 to 30,000 total deaths. This was assuming 55.7% of deaths could be attributed to Covid-19. I then re-calculated the infection fatality rates for the world. Using the WHO’s recent estimate of 10% of the world being infected, a new infection fatality rate from my previous entry is 0.077%. This is much lower than the 0.1% commonly associated with ‘flu’.
When using the lower assumption threshold of 37.2% fatalities caused by Covid-19, this would result in 16,300 for the current UK number. To put this in perspective, an average of 17,000 people in the UK die from Influenza, or Flu, every year.
At current rates and using the above percentages, my projections predict the deaths due to Covid-19 may not rise above 30,000, and could be as low as 20,000. This would be a number very similar to that of influenza.
Using the higher limit of these figures, which said 55.7% of deaths could be attributed to Covid-19, I re-calculated the infection fatality rates for the world and the UK. Using the WHO’s recent estimate of 10% of the world being infected, a new infection fatality rate from my previous entry is 0.077%. This is much lower than flu.
How many fatalities were potentially accelerated?
The study also suggested that a further 20% to 28.4% of fatalities could have been accelerated by weeks or months.
How many fatalities could truly be in ‘excess’ of those that would have happened anyway?
Therefore, at the lower end of assumption this leaves a number as low as 17% of recorded fatalities in excess of those that would have happened anyway. At the higher end, this number could be 27% of recorded deaths.
Age of study group
77.6% of the fatalities happened to those over 60 years old and 90.9% were in people over 50 years old. The mean age for the whole group was 68; for men it was 67 and women 70.
97% of people had at least one other medical condition affecting them. The most common conditions were high blood pressure (43.1%), diabetes (33.2%), and coronery heart disease (26.0%). These three are also commonly associated with obesity, so again it highlights what I described in a previous entry, that the high levels of obesity in the western world have left us open to attack. It is too late to suddenly ‘caringly’ worry about health systems when a virus spreads through the population, after abusing our bodies for years.
The UK has a different protocol for classifying deaths, which means around 80% of fatalities with Covid-19 have it as the cause of death. In comparison, the protocol in Romania classifies nearer to 100% of cases, just like the WHO suggests. This means that the percentages of people who truly died from Covid-19 in the UK may be ~10% higher. Therefore, a new estimate of 21,200 to 29,250 UK deaths may be attributed to Covid-19 using the findings of the Romanian paper. Without deaths which were accelerated by weeks or months, this number may be 12,150 to 16,600.
It is important to note that strokes can be caused by Covid-19 infections. This means that future work would need to be done to find out the proportion of strokes which were not underlying conditions but caused by Covid-19 itself.
As a point of interest, for people who have Influenza at the time of death, it can be stated as the cause of death in around 20% of the cases. This could be to do with the hysteria surrounding our current situation because ‘normal flu’ is a known disease.
- The study suggests that 17.2% to 27.3% of deaths were truly due to Covid-19 and 20% to 28.4% were accelerated by weeks or months.
- For the remaining fatalities, it suggests pre-existing health problems were directly responsible, or the cause of death was unclear.
- The vast majority of deaths are in adults over 50 years old.
- The vast majority of people (97%) had at least one other medical condition when they died. These were often associated with old age or obesity.
- The likelihood of developing these conditions increases with age.
- When extrapolated to official UK figures, this reduces the number of deaths directly due to Covid-19 to 12,000 to 16,600. Without taking into account the accelerated deaths, this number would be 21,200 to 29,200. In comparison, the average number of fatalities caused by ‘flu’ per year is 17,000.
- These numbers reduce the global death rate to 0.077%. In comparison, ‘flu’ has a number around 0.1%.
What do you think? Read the next installment in the Covid-19 Review here!